Stainless Steel Cost Support Weakens, Futures Decline, Spot Prices Remain Weak [SMM Stainless Steel Daily Report]

SMM November 20 - SS futures continued to hit bottom. Today, SS futures extended their previous weakness, breaking below the recent low of nearly 5 points and once falling to 12,255 yuan/mt. In the spot market, SS futures kept declining intraday, further dampening purchase sentiment. Traders had to cut prices for sales, but transactions remained sluggish. Today, a major stainless steel mill announced procurement prices for high-grade NPI and high-carbon ferrochrome. The high-grade NPI price was set at 880 yuan/mtu, and the December procurement price for ferrochrome was set at 8,395 yuan/mt (50% metal content). Its ability to drive down raw material prices was limited, and stainless steel costs remained high, suggesting that the decline in planned production might be modest. This week, social inventory saw destocking, down 1.28% WoW to 940,000 mt.

The most-traded SS futures contract was in the doldrums. At 10:30 a.m., the SS2601 contract was quoted at 12,330 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In Wuxi, spot premiums/discounts for 304/2B were in the range of 390-640 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was 8,025 yuan/mt; the average price of cold-rolled edged 304/2B coil was 12,675 yuan/mt in Wuxi and 12,700 yuan/mt in Foshan; the price of cold-rolled 316L/2B coil was 24,300 yuan/mt in Wuxi and 24,300 yuan/mt in Foshan; the price of hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil was 23,700 yuan/mt in Wuxi; the price of cold-rolled 430/2B coil was 7,600 yuan/mt in both Wuxi and Foshan.

Stainless steel entered the off-season at year-end, with downstream demand significantly weak and market sentiment pessimistic. In the short term, the impact of macro policy support has gradually faded recently. With SHFE nickel and ferrous metals prices falling and weak fundamentals, SS futures continued to grind at the bottom, now at relatively low levels for the year, but bearish sentiment persists. Supply side, although several stainless steel mills announced production cut plans at year-end, the actual implementation in November was limited, and cuts were mainly concentrated in the 200-series stainless steel, which had seen significant production increases earlier. Production of 300-series and 400-series stainless steel remained largely stable, resulting in a limited overall supply decline. Cost side, losses at stainless steel mills persisted, and their acceptance of high-priced raw materials was low. Coupled with pessimistic market expectations, mills drove down prices for raw material purchases. Prices of high-carbon ferrochrome, high-grade NPI, and stainless steel scrap all trended weaker, lowering the cost center of stainless steel and weakening price support. Current stainless steel prices are already at low levels, facing resistance to further declines. However, given weak demand, limited production cuts by stainless steel mills, and weakened cost support, stainless steel prices are expected to remain weak.